TALLAHASSEE – On June 10, Florida TaxWatch released The Census Undercount’s Toll on Florida Roads examining Florida’s history of census undercounts, the consequences on Florida’s transportation funding, and considerations to support the 2030 Census. This information is provided through Florida TaxWatch’s Census Institute: Ensuring A Complete Census Count In 2030, delivering data-driven analysis of the 2020 Census undercount to ensure every Floridian is accurately counted and represented in 2030.

Florida TaxWatch President and CEO Dominic M. Calabro said, “There are approximately 350 federal funding programs that use the census count, at least in part, to consider the distribution of funds, which is why Florida TaxWatch has a command focus in prioritizing a complete census count heading into the year 2030. In 2020, Florida’s census undercount cost the state one, potentially two, congressional seats and resulted in a loss of federal funding that will range from $11 billion to $21 billion by the end of the decade.”

Florida TaxWatch Executive Vice President and General Counsel Jeff Kottkamp said, “Transportation projects are already a big-ticket item for Florida taxpayers, comprising 13 percent of the state’s overall budget. As the state aims to budget adequate funding for transportation projects, an accurate census count is essential to draw down federal dollars that rightfully belong to the state of Florida.”

A census undercount threatens the accuracy of the American Community Survey (ACS), key data used for transportation planning. The ACS collects data about commutes and vehicle usage that can be filtered by location and socio-economic characteristics. In each state, the Department of Transportation may participate in the Census Transportation Planning Products (CTPP) to receive national, state, and locally focused ACS data products, ensuring consistent forecasting models.

The Census Bureau identified 15 programs within the U.S. Department of Transportation that use census data to determine funding. The dollars dispersed amounted to $93.0 billion in FY2021. Many of the identified programs are large, representing multiple streams of funding. Florida TaxWatch reviewed two grants within these programs as case studies – the Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) and the Urbanized Area Formula Grant – to explore the relationship between the census count and transportation funding programs. These particular programs were chosen due to the availability of publicly accessible resources and their abilities to represent the effects the census count has on funding categories and funding formulas.

The Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) Program is within the Highway Planning and Construction program. In 2024, Florida received $718.3 million from the STBG program. After amounts set aside for transportation alternatives and state planning and research, $616.4 million was available for suballocations across the state. Forty-five percent of the funds allocated to the state is up to the state’s discretion ($277.4 million), and the remaining 55 percent is distributed by population ($339.0 million). The latter is susceptible to errors within the census count.

The Urbanized Area Formula Grant—administered by the Federal Transit Authority – provides funding to urbanized areas (UZAs) to plan, engineer, design, and evaluate transit projects and provide capital investments for transit-related activities, among other specified activities. When a UZA’s population is close to the 200,000 residents threshold, a census undercount may result in a different funding source with a different funding formula. Population size and population density are variables used in multiple calculations within the Urban Area Formula Grant allocations. As a high growth state, Florida consistently sees increases in transportation funding due to these variables.

As the 2030 Census approaches, Florida TaxWatch encourages residents to take action to prepare by:

1) Staying up to date on census-related issues (see more from the Florida TaxWatch Census Institute),

2) Spreading awareness about the importance of decennial census,

3) Using your voice to encourage involvement by businesses and government officials, and

4) Investing in the community through philanthropic organizations or grassroot efforts that help residents complete their census surveys.

To learn more and access previous reports, please click here.